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	The Champ • 80 Posts (19 ) • 6 month(s) 25 day(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter Same to you! I kind of stopped working on this one in the last 2 days and just worked on my contest mock. We'll see how it goes! 0 0

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

) •
6 month(s) 26 day(s) ago

@dcalvertconsulting You could be right, but allow me to play devil's advocate for a moment. Let's say that you're right, and that it's Arizona's intention to not move off MHJ unless they are absolutely blown away by an offer. Wouldn't it then make sense to leak that you LOVE him and project that it would take a gigantic haul for you to move off that player? Instead, they have very clearly sent signals that the pick is open for business. To me, that could mean a couple of things. One, that they actually do love all 3 WR's, as Jurecki has flat-out stated. And two, that maybe, just maybe, they already have a wink-wink agreement with a team (almost certainly either MIN or NYG) and they are projecting that the pick is open because they are willing to see if any other team will present them with an even better offer when they are on the clock.

It's true that Harrison is still the huge betting favorite to be the first WR chosen, but that doesn't necessarily mean that Arizona will pick him. For example, if they trade out of 4 and a QB goes in that spot, for all we know, the Chargers could absolutely pick Harrison at 5.

Arizona is nowhere near being 1 player away. As great as MHJ is, consider the roster building possibilities over the next 2 years if you could get Minnesota to cough up 11, 23, and a 2025 1st. Arizona would then have three 1st's this year (in what's considered to be a loaded class), a high-2nd at 35 overall, and three 3rd's, two of which are high atop that round. And then two 1st's next year. You can totally re-shape the roster over the next 2 seasons. And they'd have such a war chest of assets that it could be entirely possible to move back up from 11 to secure one of the top 3 WR's. If I'm Ossenfort, this would be my preferred route.

This stuff is so exciting to consider. We'll see how it all plays out. Just over 14 hours to go!

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

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7 month(s) 2 day(s) ago - hide

Just found this in the betting market regarding the Rams' first pick. DL/Edge was the heavy favorite to be their first pick just 2 days ago, at something like -250 odds. Then you had Schrager's comments. Well, OL is now the -130 favorite, with DL/Edge coming in second at Even. WR is the +800 third choice, and QB is +2000 (the 6th choice). TE comes in at +2500, if anyone thinks that Bowers could slip that far. With Alaric Jackson on a 1-year deal (for less than $5MM) and with Joe Noteboom clearly showing he wasn't the answer as Andrew Whitworth's successor, I could absolutely see it if Snead and McVay think that this is the time to go after a potential franchise LT. In most years, I think that any of the top 6 OL would be top-10 overall picks. This class is just so deep, and I think that perhaps the Rams want to take advantage of it.

One more thing: I said yesterday that the juice to the Under on Bowers' O/U of 12.5 was -145; now it's -165.

Mr. Bitter • 323 Posts (462

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7 month(s) 0 day(s) ago

@The Champ

There's been some schizophrenic odds on the EDGE prospects. Some mixed messages on Verse right now.

You appear to be right about Turner slipping. Something weird is going on with ATL. Almost overnight, their first position drafted odds went from DL/EDGE -225 and OL +1100 to DL/EDGE -180 and OL +525 (!!). With Cousins now hogging up all that cap, could ATL be looking to take advantage of the bountiful OL crop and get cheaper at OT by drafting Fashanu or Latham to replace McGary at RT and then perhaps Matthews at LT a few years down the line? That scenario has crossed my mind a few times. McGary is overpriced and a very Arthur Smith-specific RT.

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

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7 month(s) 2 day(s) ago

One more thing: I said yesterday that the juice to the Under on Bowers' O/U of 12.5 was -145; now it's -165.

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

) •
7 month(s) 2 day(s) ago - hide

One more thing: I said yesterday that the juice to the Under on Bowers' O/U of 12.5 was -145; now it's -165.

Mr. Bitter • 323 Posts (462

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7 month(s) 0 day(s) ago

@The Champ

Yeah, Trey Pipkins shouldn't be starting. (Jamaree Syler, either.)

My thinking with the hypothetical Slater trade is LAC would receive Jonathan Allen along with WAS's 2.36 or 2.40. (Slater is just 25 and Allen is 29/expensive, so I think the compensation is fair.)

With one of WAS's 2nd RD picks to go along with their native pick at 2.37, I'm guessing the Chargers would be able to net Kingsley Suamataia for RT, or perhaps even Tyler Guyton in a moderate trade up into the late 1st RD. At the very worst, they could still come out of Day 2 with an upside RT prospect like Rosengarten, Brandon Coleman, etc. A cheap, risk/reward one-year bridge like slobberknocker Jack Conklin could easily be added, allowing Suamataia to ease in at RG for a season. There are options.

Bottom line: Harbaugh has a very specific vision and wants his kinda guys to build around Herbert. (Also, there's no way Harbaugh goes into next season without an interior DL linchpin.) My approach to the LAC draft is that NO starter from the prior regime is safe, especially if they're expensive or about to become expensive. They're tradeable assets. Hell, Keenan Allen was Herbert's one-and-only security blanket and Hortiz/Harbaugh banished him without hesitation.

I'm no QB expert, either. I played a little and like to think I've learned a thing or two having spent an unhealthy amount of hours over the years soaking up QB-specific breakdowns from evaluators I respect, but there are mechanical nuances that I'm still iffy on. More importantly, I'm not privy to interviews/whiteboard sessions. So much of QB success is dependent on the prospect's character and whether or not the environment he's drafted into is optimal for his development. It's a crapshoot. The historic bust rate for 1st RD QBs reflects that.

With all that said, I'll add this: While I have my doubts about Drake Maye (plus arm/mobility - not elite, IMO. Not Josh Allen. Questionable accuracy/decision-maker, poor on-target % from clean pocket), Daniels is even riskier. Your critique of Daniels was being kind, as you didn't even mention his frame or his hesitance/lack of anticipation when working the middle of the field. I'm familiar with the Daniels/sack rate under pressure info, and it's alarming. It also totally checks out on tape. With Daniels, it's so often look-look, eyes down and dip. Often right into a sack. Sure, sometimes he works his way through the backfield congestion and into the open field for a highlight run, but that won't happen as often in the NFL, and when it does, he will be severely punished if he doesn't learn to protect himself. He's so skinny. Reports say he sometimes played at 190 last year. That's absolutely terrifying. He's approaching 24 and not likely to get much bigger. His Pro Day was almost sad. He's skinny, he knows he's skinny and he was obviously trying to hide it.

So yeah, high bust potential with both Maye and Daniels, which is why I'm not absolutely convinced NE won't take MHJ at 1.03 then target Penix or Nix later on.

What I find very odd is that - for all of Daniels' red flags - it's Maye that's constantly given the fine-tooth comb treatment from the media, while Daniels' even more alarming concerns go relatively unmentioned. The media just hums along as if Daniels at 1.02 is a given. I'm not sure that it is.

	The Champ • 80 Posts (19 ) • 7 month(s) 0 day(s) ago
Something else I've noticed, regarding the possibility of Worthy to the Rams: he's dropped all the way down to +1400. That opened at something like +7000. Earlier in the week it was +4000, and it was +3000 just yesterday. 0 0

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

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7 month(s) 2 day(s) ago - hide

One more thing: I said yesterday that the juice to the Under on Bowers' O/U of 12.5 was -145; now it's -165.

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

) •
7 month(s) 0 day(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter Your thoughts on Alt/Slater are interesting, but I'm all aboard the MHJ train and MIN trading into 4, as you know. If they trade Slater, they are still short a RT (Pipkins is terrible). I think the idea would be to pair Slater with Alt, if they took him.

Among the top 4 QB's, my biggest concern from a scouting standpoint (and I say this not claiming to be a scouting guru, as I am more of a mock draft guru) is actually with Daniels. I could totally see Maye busting, don't get me wrong. But he has the physical tools and I do see some Josh Allen in him; Allen was also considered to be inaccurate coming out of Wyoming. But in getting back to Daniels, his sack rate under pressure is over a certain threshold where almost every QB has busted over the past 10-15 years. Fields and Malik Willis were on this list recently, but there have been so many others. I can't remember what the exact percentage is, but yes, Daniels was over the threshold, and, again, it's not just the number of sacks taken, it's the percentage of the sacks when there's actually pressure. This might be the best predictor of busting that I've found. It may suggest that you won't process or see the field well at the NFL level, when you're much less likely to have a clean pocket for as long as you do in college.

One more thing. I noted that I thought it was odd that Turner's O/U was 9.5 with no juice to either side, yet he was still -225 to be a top 10 pick. Well, that has now normalized, because he's dropped to just Even money to be a top 10 pick now.

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

) •
7 month(s) 2 day(s) ago - hide

One more thing: I said yesterday that the juice to the Under on Bowers' O/U of 12.5 was -145; now it's -165.

Mr. Bitter • 323 Posts (462

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7 month(s) 0 day(s) ago

@The Champ

I've seriously considered Worthy for the Rams. They still need that speed element. He could be everything Tutu Atwell was supposed to be and then some.

BUF and KC are still the betting favorites for Worthy, but I don't see it. The Bills need more size at WR and KC signed Hollywood Brown. I think Worthy is destined for CIN, LAR, IND, CAR or SF, with MIA the dark horse. (If/when they pay Tua, one of Hill or Waddle will have to go. Keeping both won't be financially feasible.)

I agree that CHI's need for an EDGE is being somewhat overstated. Sweat is obviously EDGE1 and making EDGE1 money, and in Eberflus' scheme the second DE spot has always been a run-contain/DPR platoon. A Day Two prospect like Jonah Ellis could work in that DPR role to complement DeMarcus Walker. If the Bears trade down, my guy Chop Robinson would be picture perfect in that DPR role. Chop will never be an edge-setting 4-3 DE, but if you're looking for a guy to just pin his ears back and run at the QB, he's that guy. If Chop can develop an inside counter or two instead of just running the arc, he'd be absolutely lethal in that role.

As for the QBs at 1-2-3, we might just disagree on Drake Maye. I just don't see it with him, and the transferable metrics are unkind. The Herbert/Allen comps seem extremely generous to me. Charlie Campbell's hot press report that teams see Maye as being closer to Daniel Jones/Will Levis than Herbert/Allen sounds about right, IMO. I obviously won't let my personal bias prevent me from slotting Maye in the top 3 if Vegas odds suggest that's the way the wind is blowing, but I'll probably be skeptical right up until the draft.

I'm going to set aside a bit of time this weekend to thoroughly analyze the veteran trade market and each team's salary allocation and how that might impact the draft. I think people too often forget that some of these premium picks will be traded for vets, and that teams often pass on filling obvious needs in order to draft BPA at premium positions as a hedge against incumbents on the verge of becoming very expensive. (Especially for teams with a high-salary QB. Financial flexibility at premium positions is crucial for them.) This kinda overlaps with my LAC/Alt argument. I think Hortiz/Harbaugh could trade Rashawn Slater during this draft. I really do. Slater is a dependable LT, but he's going into his contract year and hasn't been the same since a season-ending ruptured biceps tendon in WK 3 of the '22 season and ensuing high ankle sprain issues. Are we sure that Hortiz/Harbaugh/Roman will be okay on resetting the OT market with Slater considering his downward career arc, substandard size and '23 PFF run-blocking grade of 59.5? I could see the Chargers draft Alt then trade Slater to WAS for DT Jonathan Allen and more Day 2 ammo.

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

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7 month(s) 2 day(s) ago - hide

One more thing: I said yesterday that the juice to the Under on Bowers' O/U of 12.5 was -145; now it's -165.

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

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7 month(s) 1 day(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter For me this is truly the most wonderful time of the year. There's just nothing like it. All of the possible scenarios you throw out there aren't without logic, and anything can happen. Still, I just think we're going to see the QB's go 1-2-3, with no one trading back. I think in most years, the top 3 guys (assuming McCarthy is QB4) would be the #1 overall pick. If you're Washington and New England, you just have no idea if you are going to have access to a QB like this again. It could take 10, 20 years. The position is, essentially, everything. So even though players like the top 3 WR's and Alt clearly have much safer floors (as well as great ceilings), ultimately, they aren't QB's. So I don't see the top 3 teams trading back.

At 4 is where it starts to get interesting, for me. I've been projecting that Arizona will trade down with Minnesota for weeks, and I still absolutely believe it makes the most sense. However, of course it's possible that Minnesota didn't actually get a promise (especially if Schefter is correct, though I sometimes doubt his draft-related reporting because he's ultimately working for the network that's televising the event), and if that's the case, it could mean that Arizona will stick and pick a WR for itself, or, of course, they could still trade down with another team that wants to come up for the QB, with the Giants making the most sense there (allowing Arizona to still get one of the top 2 WR).

I think the Chargers would pick MHJ over Alt (I agree with Jurecki), but it's not like anyone could be shocked if they chose Alt. Now, if MHJ goes at 4, my strong belief is that the Chargers would trade back with Minnesota. Alt is the OT1, but I think Harbaugh would love Fuaga or Latham as his RT at 11, and then they'd have another pick at 23 (and another one at 37) to open their draft. It would also give them the option to try to trade back up for the WR3 at 8, should they pursue that option, as there should still be viable RT's on the board at 23.

The Giants trading back and then taking Bowers is sound logic. I like it, actually. I'm probably not going to mock it, but I do like it. I also like the thought of Chicago leaping the Titans to pick Alt at 6, I really do. As I stated in my blurb about them going with Fashanu, I think they are committed with the first 2 picks on going offense. Of course an edge rusher would help, but the defense is already going to be really good. A top-tier WR or a top LT make all the sense in the world for them. My only question is wondering if CAR's 2025 2nd is enough for the Giants, but it's probably fair on the trade chart. I wonder if the Giants would rather take something like #75 this year and, say, a 2025 Bears 3rd rounder. In any case, I could see Chicago and the Giants agreeing to this if the Giants aren't absolutely sold on one of the top 3 WR; they'd have to think that Bowers is pretty close to them, obviously.

I'd be surprised if the Saints moved up. They don't have enough draft capital as it is, and I still think they'll have a fine blocker there at 14. Especially with Ramcyzk's issues, I'm not sure that it would be a blow to them to take a RT. And Latham may be there and I think he might be able to play LT.

One last thing: the more I think about it, I think the Rams will end up with Mims, Worthy, or Guyton.

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

) •
7 month(s) 2 day(s) ago - hide

One more thing: I said yesterday that the juice to the Under on Bowers' O/U of 12.5 was -145; now it's -165.

Mr. Bitter • 323 Posts (462

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7 month(s) 1 day(s) ago

@The Champ

I don't know about you, but I'm currently chin-deep in draft scenarios/puzzle solving. So much fun. Truly the most wonderful time of the year.

Bill Belichick recently stated that everything draftniks hear this time of year is agent-fed, and only what you hear 12 hours or less before the draft can be trusted. I don't think that's 100% true, but I'd say it's about 90% true. About a week out is when I go into "chaos mode". That's when I heavily filter the rumors and speculation, take a step back from all the comfortable consensus, and really try to sniff out the uncomfortable and not-yet-thought-of picks/trades that would initially shock, but then make you think, "Yeah, that actually makes sense". Because that's what happens in the real draft.

Last year around this time I started kicking around the idea of HOU drafting Stroud then trading up for Will Anderson. (I can't remember if it was you or NoHeroes, but I bounced the idea off of one of you guys in the comment section for a day or two.) I was convinced the trade was going to happen and made it a permanent part of my mock, but like a moron I deferred to Lance Zierlein's faulty Texans intel at the very last moment and removed the trade from my contest mock. I don't want to make the same mistake this year. That's why I pick your brain. (Probably too often. Sorry.) You think logically but outside the box. So many mocks just copy the media consensus. Those mocks are always wrong, so why do people keep going down that road?

Anyway, here are my two candidates to be the agents of chaos that throw everyone's 2024 top 10 into disarray:

1) The Patriots at 1.03.

I'm pretty sure Williams/Daniels go 1/2, and I believe Charlie Campbell when he says NE would prefer Daniels to Maye/McCarthy but be "okay" with QB3. But I still have my doubts whether the Pats like Maye/McCarthy better than MHJ or even Joe Alt.

For me, drafting Maye/McCarthy over MHJ or Alt is a pretty healthy reach. I get that standard rules go out the window when you desperately need a QB, but the Pats also desperately need a WR1 and LT. If I was a Pats fan, I think I would be more excited about -- let's say -- MHJ or Alt at 1.03 and a trade up into the mid/late 1st for Penix than Maye/McCarthy at 1.03 and Kingsley Suamataia at 2.34. or a trade up into the mid/late 1st for Tyler Guyton. I still think QB-QB-QB-MHJ is most likely, but I'm getting less comfortable with it by the day.

2) Joe Alt/Teams that need a LT

I just don't think the 1.07 TEN/Alt chalk is going to happen. It almost seems like when folks are creating their mocks, they're inking that pick in first then working around it. There are just too many plausible scenarios that take Alt off the board by then.

Alt to NE at 1.03. Extreme longshot, but possible.

Alt to LAC at 1.05. VERY possible. Hortiz is a Ravens guy. (I don't need to reel off examples...you know how highly BAL values O-line on draft day.) I also don't need to tell you how perfectly Alt fits the profile of a Harbaugh OT...or how the Ravens and Harbaugh have historically built their team identity through a dominant O-line/defense, etc, etc.

Alt at 1.06. This seems an obvious scenario to me, but I've never seen a single mock with a team trading right ahead of TEN for Alt. Alt (or MHJ) is arguably the cleanest blue chip in this draft; teams are going to want to move up for him, and they all know where they need to go to get him.

I think you're on to something with your CHI/Fashanu pick. Braxton Jones has surprised, but if you're Ryan Poles and in range for a perennial Pro Bowl LT, you go for it without a second thought to Jones. I say why not take it one step further? With Caleb Williams and that defense, the Bears aren't going to be in range for a LT of Alt's quality for a long time, and franchise LTs simply don't reach the open market. (While Pro Bowl WRs are traded constantly and high-quality WR draft prospects seem increasingly plentiful by the year.) Why not use that extra '25 2nd -rounder from CAR, move up to 1.06 for Alt and ensure Caleb William's edge protection is air-tight for the next decade? At 1.09, the Giants could draft Brock Bowers. Darren Waller is finished, and it seems every organizational move the Giants make lately just mimics what the Buffalo Bills did yesterday. The Giants could run their offense through Bowers just as BUF will run theirs through Dalton Kincaid.

The Saints could also move up to 1.06 for Alt. They've made their bed with Derek Carr, and he has no chance without vast and immediate OT upgrades. The Saints currently don't have a viable LT option on their roster. There's no guarantee Fashanu makes it to them at 1.14 and Fashanu is far from a sure thing anyway. There will be O-linemen popping off like crazy in the teens, but Troy Fautanu is the only one ready to man LT and he may not meet NO's size standards.

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

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7 month(s) 2 day(s) ago

FYI, you have Green Bay trading up to 21 (with the Dolphins), but then Green Bay picking again at 25, their original draft slot.

Regarding the possibility of the Bengals trading up, they've literally never done that in the 1st Round since Duke Tobin has been in charge. When they traded up 3 spots in the 2nd round in 2022 to pick Cam Taylor-Britt, it was after this draft that Tobin was quoted as saying, and I'm paraphrasing: "it pains me to have to give up picks because each pick represents a chance to hit on somebody. But we felt it was right in this case." He just flat-out doesn't like to trade up, philosophically. If anything, he's more likely to trade down. I mean, never say never, but when mocking I think you have to go with the history when you're in the prediction game. This is why I'm not mocking a CB to Philly, for example. But I digress.

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

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7 month(s) 2 day(s) ago - hide

One more thing: I said yesterday that the juice to the Under on Bowers' O/U of 12.5 was -145; now it's -165.

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

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7 month(s) 2 day(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter Yeah, for possible fallers I'm going with Bowers and Turner. John Daigle just released a mock where he had Turner in the 20's, and he had the most accurate mock in the industry last year, I believe.

I'm going to go with Newton as a potential riser going much earlier than expected. He could really be this year's Kancey (who went 19th last year). The league has told us that DT is a premium position, and Newton is awesome on film. He could be someone that I have moving up between now and draft day. I don't think he gets out of the 1st Round; I think that's easy money.

What you say about the Giants has logic, and it wouldn't surprise me. That said, I think that most teams have Nabers higher than him and I even buy the talk that many have him over MHJ, so if he happens to be on the board at 7, the Titans are going to get a lot of calls. However, I still think that they would pick Alt in that scenario, and then Atlanta could trade out of 8 with all sorts of teams likely wanting Nabers. CHI, NYJ, ARZ/LAC (whichever team ends up at 11 after trading down with MIN), IND, JAX, LAR, PIT, DAL, and BUF all come to mind. (Think of how much they could potentially get out of some of those teams picking later if they were willing to move down that far.) I really feel like the WR3 is going to go at #8, with a team trading up. I don't think Atlanta would have given $26MM guaranteed to Mooney if they knew that one of the top 3 WR's were still very likely to be on the board at 8. Hell, maybe they'll still pick the WR. That ATL offense would be a hell of a lot of fun, that's for sure.

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

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7 month(s) 2 day(s) ago - hide

One more thing: I said yesterday that the juice to the Under on Bowers' O/U of 12.5 was -145; now it's -165.

Mr. Bitter • 323 Posts (462

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7 month(s) 2 day(s) ago

@The Champ

If the Jets don't make the playoffs in '24, Douglas/Saleh are gone. No doubt in my mind. A trade down for BTJ makes sense. I think he's relatively unrefined and it's questionable whether he would make an instant impact, but not all agree with that assessment.

I think the Giants would take Odunze over Nabers. As you suggested, Odunze would better diversify the WR corps, and I think the character concerns with Nabers could be a sticking point with an organization as conservative as the Giants.

There is a surprise faller or two in every draft. IMO, the most likely candidates this year are Turner, Nabers and Bowers. Guys that could go much higher than their position O/U: Murphy II, Mims, Chop, Latu.

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

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7 month(s) 2 day(s) ago - hide

One more thing: I said yesterday that the juice to the Under on Bowers' O/U of 12.5 was -145; now it's -165.

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

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7 month(s) 2 day(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter The Colts have been aggressive before, so that's within the realm of possibility, sure. I still doubt that the Jets are going to go OL, but maybe Douglas has more job security than I think. (If they do trade back to 15, that could still put them in the range of Brian Thomas Jr.)

I agree that it's unlikely that Latham is there at 19 for the Rams, and I'm not sure that they would take more of a RT guy like Fuaga if he happened to be there. I'm kind of going back and forth on my Rams pick with this Schrager stuff out there. It may not be offense, but if it is, I think I might be between Thomas Jr., Mims, or Guyton, if all 3 are there. And I do think that a trade down is a definite possibility, because Snead loves to work the board during drafts.

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

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7 month(s) 2 day(s) ago - hide

One more thing: I said yesterday that the juice to the Under on Bowers' O/U of 12.5 was -145; now it's -165.

Mr. Bitter • 323 Posts (462

) •
7 month(s) 2 day(s) ago

@The Champ

No doubt LT is in play for the Rams. I imagine it would be Mims or Guyton. I can't see any of Alt, Fashanu, Fautanu, Fauga, Latham being on the board at 1.19.

I just wonder what they'll do about EDGE then. Maybe Marshawn Kneeland in the 2nd? Maybe he could play that Elephant OLB role opposite Byron Young. Chris Braswell? They really need more pass-rushing juice with no Aaron Donald and no Raheem Morris manufacturing pressure with smoke and mirrors.

I just noticed that IND's odds of drafting a TE first went from +425 to +250 overnight, while the Jets odds for drafting a TE actually went from +130 to +135, with O-line now at -105. Colts trade up for Bowers?

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

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7 month(s) 3 day(s) ago

A couple of interesting player prop Over/Unders...

Dallas Turner is at 9.5, with more juice (-135) to the Over. My mock as of now has Atlanta trading down to 11 and passing on Turner, but this would also mean that the sharps think that there's a decent chance that the Bears would pass on him, too. (If Odunze is not there at 9, perhaps Chicago trades down, or maybe there's really something to the official 30 visits they've had with some of the top OL; maybe they'd seek a LT upgrade.) I don't see the Jets going with defense at 10, so I guess this is accounting for the possibility of each of ATL/CHI/NYJ trading back?

I think Bowers' O/U of 12.5 is appropriate, with juice to the Under at -145. I do think that the Jets at 10 is the earliest possible spot he can go in, so it makes sense that his # would be a little bit over that. Denver would certainly be a possibility if they don't trade down, I still think Indy at 15 makes a lot of sense even without the athletic testing (if they don't go CB, they really want another offensive piece for Richardson), and although Duke Tobin is also an RAS guy, Cincy has lacked a big-time TE for so long that I see that as making sense. Perhaps his floor is 19 to the Rams, especially with Schrager's eye-opener that McVay is almost guaranteed to get an offensive player with the pick. I could see McVay using him similarly to how the 49ers use Deebo.

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

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7 month(s) 3 day(s) ago - hide

A couple of interesting player prop Over/Unders...

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

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7 month(s) 3 day(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter Yeah I'm with you on Penix. Are there some concerns? Sure. He's an older prospect, though we aren't talking Chris Weinke or Brandon Weeden old. He's had the two ACL injuries, but at the same time, he's a QB, not a RB or WR, and running a 4.4 certainly shows he's not a statue back there. Are there some concerns that he doesn't operate as effectively under pressure? Sure, but you can say that about most QB's, including guys like Jared Goff, who has been to a Super Bowl and a conference title game. Given how important having a QB is, I think he's worth the shot for any of the QB-needy teams not picking in the top 3. Denver, really, should take him at 12, because Nix isn't winning you 3 playoff games in the AFC. At least Penix has that type of upside, which is why I could understand the Raiders doing it at 13.

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

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7 month(s) 3 day(s) ago - hide

A couple of interesting player prop Over/Unders...

Mr. Bitter • 323 Posts (462

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7 month(s) 3 day(s) ago

@The Champ

Bo Nix at 1.12 is a fireable offense. Comically low ADOT and when forced out of that comfort zone he's observably anxious. Even at the Senior Bowl.

Some concerning transferable metrics and obviously the injury history, but Lord Almighty does Penix have an arm. Just incredible. How do you not take a chance on him in the 1st RD? Not buying the "elite supporting cast" stuff, either. Even on a woefully outclassed Indiana squad, I remember Penix giving the Buckeyes all they could handle.

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

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7 month(s) 3 day(s) ago - hide

A couple of interesting player prop Over/Unders...

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

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7 month(s) 3 day(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter I did see that Schrager's mock last year wasn't good, but that was awfully strong language. So, I guess we'll see. I agree that Denver just has to get a QB early. Taking Nix at 12 would be really gross, however. I'm guessing that they desperately would like to trade down, and at least if they end up taking Nix in the 20's, let's say, they will have procured another pick out of it. I already had them trading down to 25 in my mock in a projected trade with Green Bay, but I changed the mock to them taking Nix not with the pick at 25, but with the 2nd round pick they'd get from the Packers at 41. I believe Penix will go in the 1st, and 6 QB's in the 1st just feels like too much, when I consider everything.

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

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7 month(s) 3 day(s) ago - hide

A couple of interesting player prop Over/Unders...

Mr. Bitter • 323 Posts (462

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7 month(s) 3 day(s) ago

@The Champ

Yeah, I'm beginning to wonder if CHI will go O-line. Poles is a trenches guy all the way, and doing everything possible to make Caleb Williams' protection airtight will always be a good idea. It all comes down to whether they're confident that Braxton Jones' overachievement is sustainable. If they aren't, Fautanu is a dark horse at 1.09. At worst, Fautanu could be a Joe Thuney-type LG, with Jenkins moving to RG.

You're right about that ATL/CHI/NYJ cluster -- one of those teams is likely to trade out.

I seriously doubt the Jets go O-line. They like '23 3rd-rounder Carter Warren as depth. It's either Bowers or Odunze/Nabers for them. I could see NY trading UP for one of the WRs. There is no tomorrow for the Jets right now.

The Dallas Turner number is interesting, as is Latu and Verse making a late kick to close the gap on Turner at 1.08/First EDGE Drafted. Turner is very similar to Arnold Ebiketie -- perhaps ATL would prefer a more polished EDGE to complement Ebiketie. They're kinda in win-now mode with Cousins.

If DEN doesn't make a move for a QB, I could see Sean Payton liking Bowers as a quasi-Taysom Hill. Pretty sure DEN will make a move for a QB though. They've painted themselves into a corner. If they don't come out of this draft with QB1, what other options are there? Ryan Tannehill? Davis Mills? Blech. If it comes to that, they may as well trade Bolles, Sutton and Surtain and start all over.

Bowers/LAR is very intriguing. The Rams put very little stock into testing numbers and I don't think they're counting on Tyler Higbee going forward. Bowers would be a perfect complement to in-line TE Colby Parkinson in 2-TE sets.

I respect Charlie Campbell and don't doubt that he's sourced, but I think Charlie's NYJ/Bowers/Odunze take is probably just a logical deduction. With Saleh/Douglas on the hot seat, Rodgers nearly 41 and Mike Williams an injury waiting to happen, everyone kinda knows the Jets are all-in and focused on obtaining one more weapon for Rodgers.

I take Schrager's reports with a grain of salt. Check out his late mocks from last year. There were...not very accurate.

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

) •
7 month(s) 3 day(s) ago

Regardless of who initiated what, the fact is that the Vikings now have two 1st's THIS YEAR in an outstanding draft, and current 1st's are worth more than future 1st's. The Vikes have enough to outbid the Giants, Broncos, and Raiders, and they are aware of the Giants, in particular, being able to offer Arizona a pick that still falls in the range of the top 3 WR. We know Arizona is very much open to moving down. Still think it makes all sorts of sense.

I also still think Bowers ends up with the Jets at 10, although if he doesn't go there, it's true that he could go as low to the Bengals at 18, I think. I buy Charlie's intel that they are targeting either he or Odunze. The Jets are in extreme win-now mode and after the OL makeover in free agency, I simply do not see them making what amounts to an insurance pick or a pick to fill a starting slot next year with an OL. They need IMMEDIATE help with an offensive weapon, as Mike Williams is unlikely to be close to his normal self this year. I suppose I could understand if they traded down and then took one of the other WR's like Thomas/Mitchell/Worthy, but I don't see them going OL like Schefter and some others do. It's not just Saleh who is on the hot seat this year; Joe Douglas could be, too. I don't think he can afford to take a projected backup OL this year, not with their first pick when there's a premium offensive talent on the board. And Bowers was a team captain at Georgia, which Douglas typically goes for in the 1st.

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

) •
7 month(s) 4 day(s) ago

I still believe that JJ is going 4th overall, and that Arizona will trade back. I got in a Twitter conversation with Mike Jurecki yesterday, and he said that Arizona would absolutely be interested in a trade back with the Vikings, especially if they can get future draft capital in addition to 11 and 23 this year. And honestly, it makes sense, especially if they can get Minnesota's 1st or 2nd rounder next year. They would have 11, 23, and 27 in the 1st this year in an extremely talented draft class, a pick at 35 that's very high in the 2nd, and 3 picks in the 3rd, two of which are early picks in that round. And while there's no guarantee that they could trade back up to, say, the top 9 to get one of the top 3 WR's, they certainly would have ample draft assets to do so. And even if they don't get one of the top 3 guys, they can plug the obvious holes they have on the roster with all these picks, and there will be good WR's in their range at 23, 27, and 35.

I also can't shake the feeling that it would have made sense for Minnesota to get a promise from a team in the top 4 (which means Arizona, because the top 3 teams are sticking and picking), because the simple fact is that, if they are counting on making the deal at 5 with the Chargers, there's a relatively simple trade that could take place where the Giants jump to 4 to take McCarthy (or Maye if McCarthy is the shock pick at #2), which allows Arizona to still get one of the top 3 WR's. I think Minnesota knew all this beforehand, and I think it's highly likely that Arizona is OK with trading down and getting the haul that they would undoubtedly get.

One final thing that Jurecki said: the Chargers would "rush to the podium" for MHJ is he's there at 5. Not Alt, and not a trade down. I know some don't think Harbaugh will want a premium WR, and they point to his lack of procuring a 5-star WR recruit in college, but I'd push back on that a little bit. First off, we know that he did try to recruit MHJ to Michigan. Second, he saw firsthand how great he was on the field against his Michigan team that was scheming to try and stop him. And lastly, the need is just so dire. There will still be good OL options at #37, and while that's also true for the WR's, the Chargers may believe (with good reason) that MHJ is literally the best player in the draft, and that the gap between MHJ and the WR's at 37 compared to Alt and the OL's available at 37 is greater.

My thoughts, anyway. Just 8 days left!

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

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7 month(s) 6 day(s) ago

@Warrior Understood! Yeah, I'm going to have to get DeJean back into my 1st Round after he showed he's fine at his workout. Green Bay and Detroit certainly make sense for him, as would Arizona with a pick in the 20's. Brad Holmes has had that Iowa pipeline, too, although you could make the argument that they need a pure outside CB a bit more. As for Green Bay, I think DeJean is a slightly better fit there. I have Green Bay trading up in my current mock but I most likely will scrap almost all of my trades for the Contest Mock here on the site, although I will 100% stick with my McCarthy trade up. Regarding Verse and the Bears, I could see them targeting him but more likely via trade down. And as you point out, the Bears don't have much draft capital after the admittedly-great #1 and #9 picks, so if they don't see a blue-chipper there at #9, it could make a lot of sense to trade down.

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

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7 month(s) 7 day(s) ago

@Warrior Verse seems like a longshot to go in the top 10, though you can get that at +275. Interestingly, Latu has slightly better odds to go top 10 at +250. But yeah, in getting back to Odunze, I just can't see Chicago passing on him if he's there at 9. Keenan Allen could just be a 1-year thing and I think they'd load up on talent for Williams. -1800 is a really, really strong indicator that he's seen as a total blue-chip talent. I don't think Verse is seen quite in that way. I think that Latu might be, but the medical stuff makes him obviously risky. Still, based on the odds that are out there on Latu (he has the second-best odds of being the first defensive player chosen, quite a bit ahead of Verse), I may have to re-think my mock that has Latu going 19th to the Rams. I was just having a hard time slotting him somewhere ahead of that, though. IMO, I don't see a lot of teams between 11-18 looking at edge rushers. Perhaps Denver and Seattle, but I feel like Denver is going to trade down and look at Nix. Seattle is a bit of a wild card since this is Schneider's first year having final say over the roster, but DL/Edge is the second choice for their pick among oddsmakers (behind OL).

Getting back to Odunze though, I believe we will see 4 QB, 3 WR, Alt, Turner, and Bowers go top 10. I feel much more confident that Bowers could slip out of the top 10 as opposed to Odunze, though; Bowers has Even odds of being a top 10 choice. The only team that I think could take Bowers in the top 10 is the team at 10, the Jets, and although he's surely a great talent, he didn't really test at all, and I don't view that the same way that I view MHJ not testing. TE isn't considered a premium position, and I could see the Jets going elsewhere, or trading down. I do think Indy could end a possible Bowers slide at 15, but Ballard is a pretty strict RAS guy, so without testing...I don't know. If there is a "name" player most likely to drop on draft day, I'm going with Bowers.

	The Champ • 80 Posts (19 ) • 7 month(s) 7 day(s) ago
Odunze is -1800 to go in the top 10. 0 0

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

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7 month(s) 10 day(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter I added your analysis about the Rams taking older, more seasoned prospects to my blurbs in both rounds in this mock. I would add that we've even seen that when they had Goff at QB. I changed it up and now have them taking Latu at 19 and Sweat at 52; I'll be interested to see if Sweat drops even further after the DWI thing. But hey, at least he didn't crash his car and leave the scene of the accident and get other people injured, amirite?

	The Champ • 80 Posts (19 ) • 7 month(s) 11 day(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter I mean, if both Verse and Murphy are on the board at 19 for the Rams, it would be like Christmas for them. Hell, I could even see them taking Latu if they are confident about his medicals. 0 0

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

) •
7 month(s) 17 day(s) ago

You have a lot of the same player-team matches that I have in my latest mock, so you're clearly a very intelligent person! =)

The more I look at how I think the draft will unfold, especially if both Penix and Nix end up in the 1st Round, you're going to see absolute blue-chip talent with clear 1st Round grades slipping not only into the 20's, but possibly beyond 30 as well. Like, I have Johnny Newton out of the 1st Round now and I absolutely love him. There are going to be major steals early in the 2nd Round.

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

) •
7 month(s) 17 day(s) ago - hide

You have a lot of the same player-team matches that I have in my latest mock, so you're clearly a very intelligent person! =)

	JJsRams • 2 Posts (0) • 7 month(s) 14 day(s) ago
@The Champ Thank you! In my scenario, I would imagine some team would leap back into round 1 to draft Penix Jr. But I agree that there is so much incredible talent in this draft that some very quality prospects will definitely be available for second round. 0 0

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

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7 month(s) 17 day(s) ago

@42yardline Well, as we were discussing with Mr. Bitter, I can't believe the Bills actually did this. I guess I was wrong that he would stick on the roster for one more year. What a bitter pill that has to be to swallow that much of a dead cap hit for a team that's supposed to be a Super Bowl contender. They would probably have to move up into the early-to-mid teens to ensure coming away with Thomas. And is Thomas a guarantee to hit? Of course he looks like a great prospect and he profiles as a downfield threat, but Buffalo would need him to be good right away.

	The Champ • 80 Posts (19 ) • 7 month(s) 25 day(s) ago
Lassiter is still in the 1st Round here. That 40 time has to have dropped him to the 2nd, at least. 0 0

	The Champ • 80 Posts (19 ) • 7 month(s) 25 day(s) ago - hide
Lassiter is still in the 1st Round here. That 40 time has to have dropped him to the 2nd, at least. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 323 Posts (462 ) • 7 month(s) 23 day(s) ago
@The Champ Also: Charlie Campbell has suggested Melton could go high for a while now I believe. 0 0

	The Champ • 80 Posts (19 ) • 7 month(s) 25 day(s) ago - hide
Lassiter is still in the 1st Round here. That 40 time has to have dropped him to the 2nd, at least. 0 0

	Mr. Bitter • 323 Posts (462 ) • 7 month(s) 23 day(s) ago
@The Champ Melton would make sense. I know he went late-1st in Chad Reuter's latest NFL.com mock, and Chris Simms ranked him CB4 ahead of Arnold/Kool-Aid/DeJean (for whatever that's worth). 0 0

	The Champ • 80 Posts (19 ) • 7 month(s) 25 day(s) ago - hide
Lassiter is still in the 1st Round here. That 40 time has to have dropped him to the 2nd, at least. 0 0

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

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7 month(s) 24 day(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter I can't remember where I saw this (and it was from a reputable source), but someone speculated that Max Melton could be a 1st Round pick. I think Sainristl has gotten a lot of the pub as a great slot corner prospect, but Melton is a 99th-percentile RAS guy. I agree with you that 5.5 seems high, but I think I have 5 in my latest mock, with Mitchell/Arnold/Wiggins/DeJean/McKinstry. I have McKinstry back in the 1st because he ran well even though he needs Jones fracture surgery, but obviously he's no lock.

	The Champ • 80 Posts (19 ) • 7 month(s) 25 day(s) ago - hide
Lassiter is still in the 1st Round here. That 40 time has to have dropped him to the 2nd, at least. 0 0

Mr. Bitter • 323 Posts (462

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7 month(s) 24 day(s) ago

@The Champ

The current O/U on CBs taken in the 1st RD is 5.5. That seems high, even with DeJean listed as a CB. Mitchell and Arnold are 1st rounders for sure, but I wouldn't be surprised if one of Wiggins or DeJean slips to the top of the 2nd RD. Lassiter, Kool-Aid and Rakestraw are looking like 2nd/3rd rounders with the injuries and poor testing, so with the number at 5.5, I'm wondering if there's a toolsy CB prospect we're sleeping on that Vegas anticipates will sneak into the late-1st. Maybe someone like T.J. Tampa or Cam Hart?

	The Champ • 80 Posts (19 ) • 7 month(s) 25 day(s) ago
Also, no way Cincy takes Kinchens. For one thing, they signed Vonn Bell and Geno Stone, not to mention that '22 1st rounder Dax Hill is in the fold. But more than that, Kinchens is not a good athlete, relatively speaking, for an NFL safety prospect. Duke Tobin is very much a RAS drafter with high picks, as is someone like Gutekunst and Ballard. 1 0

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

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7 month(s) 29 day(s) ago

@42yardline I've had the QB's going 1-2-3-4 as soon as I heard Daniel Jeremiah saying on a podcast (the day of the trade where Minnesota moved up to get #23, I believe) that this would be the case. His theory was, simply, that you don't make that move unless you have a promise from a team in the top 4 that they would take a deal where you procured them a second 1st Round pick. And if the promise came from the Chargers or Giants, let's say, you have no way of knowing that Arizona couldn't trade out of 4 and foil your plan, if you're Minnesota. So yes, I believe that at the very least, Arizona has assured them that they would accept 11 and 23 for 4.

And there's another theory I've seen floated, one that I borrowed on my own mock, which is this: what if Minnesota, Arizona, and the Chargers have essentially agreed to a 3-way trade? One where Minnesota comes up to 4 to take McCarthy, Arizona moves to 5 to still get Harrison Jr., and the Chargers get 5 and 35 out of it? We've seen reports that Arizona loves MHJ, and that the Chargers are interested in moving down if it gets the right offer. Well, couldn't this be something where all 3 teams get what they want? Minnesota procured #23 and uses it to get McCarthy. Arizona still gets MHJ and actually moves up from #35 to #23 in the exchange. And the Chargers come out well ahead on the trade value chart if they turn 5 into 11 and 35.

I could see 6 QB's in the 1st, I agree with you, and I think it's a virtual certainty that we will see 5.

	The Champ • 80 Posts (19 ) • 8 month(s) 0 day(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter After the Mike McDaniel-Worthy lovefest at Texas' Pro Day, and in thinking about how the Dolphins absolutely covet speed, I could see him going 21st now. I really could. Miami's target tree has become incredibly thin, and maybe they think it would be good to get another speed merchant on the field for Tua to get the ball to. 0 0

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

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8 month(s) 2 day(s) ago

@42yardline I agree with you on Worthy and think he ends up in the 1st, though I admittedly have him going 32nd so it's not like he's a lock. Of course, we all know about the 40 record. But unlike someone like Darrius Heyward-Bey, I feel like Worthy is a decent route-runner. Sure, perhaps the slight frame is a concern, but similar things were said about Devonta Smith too. If he's there for the Chiefs at 32, that just feels like an ideal fit to me.

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

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8 month(s) 2 day(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter The only thing keeping me from thinking that Diggs will get moved this year is the dead cap hit, regardless of whether it's a trade or just from cutting him. (And they obviously wouldn't do that.) If I'm looking at it correctly, Diggs not being on the team would cost them nearly $50MM in dead cap. So I just don't think it's tenable. Even next year, it would still be a $22MM dead cap hit, though I find that to be much more plausible.

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

) •
8 month(s) 2 day(s) ago

Some thoughts on this 1st Round:

I like that you have MIN moving up, but I strongly believe in Daniel Jeremiah's theory that it's to get up to the top 4, not 5 or 6. We saw Arizona trade back just last year, and if MIN had a wink-wink deal with, say, the Chargers to move up, then MIN has no assurance that someone couldn't blow Arizona's socks off with an offer. Could be the Giants from 6 to 4, for example, and then Arizona is still guaranteed one of Harrison Jr. or Nabers. Regardless, I have a hard time believing that MIN would have made that deal to get back up to #23 without the assurance that it would be guaranteed Maye or McCarthy.

There is plenty of speculation that Mitchell is CB1 over Arnold, and if it's Indy who makes the first CB pick at 15, I have a hard time thinking that Chris Ballard doesn't go for the athletic traits of Mitchell over Arnold. We know Ballard's history.

Cincy would likely eschew OL at 18 after getting Brown for RT.

I can't see Lassiter in the 1st after failing to break 4.6 at both the Combine and at his Pro Day.

	The Champ • 80 Posts (19 ) • 8 month(s) 3 day(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter Trent Brown is flying to Cincinnati and will apparently visit the Bengals tomorrow. I must say, my blurb on #18 might be looking pretty, pretty good! 0 0

	The Champ • 80 Posts (19 ) • 8 month(s) 3 day(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter Agree on the Bears OT situation. I don't think they would use early draft capital on that spot. 0 0

	The Champ • 80 Posts (19 ) • 8 month(s) 4 day(s) ago
The Rams almost certainly would not take JPJ at 19. They have Steve Avila ready to play center (that was his best college position and Avila played guard last year for the Rams), and the team not only re-signed their own outstanding guard, Kevin Dotson, but they signed Jonah Jackson in free agency as well. The iOL for the Rams is set. 0 0

	The Champ • 80 Posts (19 ) • 8 month(s) 5 day(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter I could definitely see Buffalo moving on from Diggs. In fact, that was my assumption after the season ended. The Bills were able to win games in the last 2 months of the season without Diggs really doing a ton other than catching passes near the LOS. The vibes there are clearly off. 0 0

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

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8 month(s) 9 day(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter I would be pretty shocked if New England turned to Fields; I think signing Brissett is a clear indication that they want to pick a rookie QB at 3 and have him be the bridge guy. If the move was trading for Fields, I don't think you sign a veteran backup like Brissett, and you don't make them compete. You'd be getting Fields to see what he can do. To me, they would have just kept Zappe in the backup role. I do agree with you that the Pats continue to make curious moves, but it just doesn't line up logically to me. I truly have no idea where Fields may end up. If the Giants bite the bullet on Jones and cut him, maybe, as Drew Lock probably wouldn't be much of an impediment (he only got $5MM). Even still, I find that as a longshot. Denver to me is a longshot because it's such an awful scheme fit with Sean Payton, worse than Russell Wilson was, actually. I really think he may end up on some team as a backup. I also think that it would be a mistake by Chicago to bring him into training camp or even OTA's, because any energy NOT spent going to developing Caleb Williams will be to Chicago's detriment.

Speaking of the Bears, I absolutely could see them trading up for one of Nabers/Odunze, particularly if either of them are still there at #7. As long as the Titans don't want either of those guys for themselves and are eyeing, say, Joe Alt, the Titans could reasonably move to 9 and still get Alt because it's unlikely that Atlanta, at 8, would take him. (Of course, there's always the chance that a team could trade up to 8 for Alt, and that Atlanta could trade down.) On the other hand, the Bears only have 5 picks in this draft, and they clearly won't be getting a premium pick or picks for Fields. As such, I could also see them trading DOWN from 9.

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

) •
8 month(s) 10 day(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter Obviously, major news today. With Cousins officially to ATL, we can obviously rule them out for McCarthy or any other QB in the draft. And with Minshew to the Raiders, the landing spots for Justin Fields are close to nil. Minnesota doesn't make sense for a variety of reasons (not a scheme fit, plus unlikely Chicago would risk trading him in the division), and if New England goes QB at 3 (which I think they will), trading for Fields doesn't make sense, either, because you don't give up meaningful draft capital for a one-year rental. (And they can't exercise his fifth-year option if they are taking a QB at 3.)

I think this increases the likelihood of Minnesota trying to make an aggressive move up the board for JJ McCarthy, and I continue to think that a deal with the Chargers at 5 makes the most sense. Quite simply, moving up to 5 should mean that the Chargers wouldn't entertain the thought of Denver or the Raiders moving up into that spot.

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

) •
8 month(s) 12 day(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter You make a good point on Coleman, and in thinking about it, Fontenot loves freak athleticism, at least in the 1st Round. Coleman can make highlight-reel plays and data suggests that he reaches top speeds when he runs, but the 40 time may simply be a disqualifier for Fontenot. And there are some concerns about separating as well.

Regarding Mitchell, it was just the way the mock played out, and I wouldn't be shocked if he goes as CB1 before Arnold, meaning he could be in play at any time after #10, really. If the Rams don't come away with a CB1 solution during free agency (either by a signing or with a trade), perhaps Mitchell would be the pick over Latu at #19 if both were on the board. I think Latu would be a great pick for them but perhaps the prior medical history would sway them to take Mitchell instead. (And I know you think Chop will go very high, and he may, but I might be too high on him in this mock.)

I'm also really toying with the idea of Penix landing with Seattle, due to the Grubb connection and the fact that Seattle certainly isn't tied to Geno Smith beyond this year. I'm also wondering if the Giants, armed with two 2nd Round picks, do something to try to secure a QB in this draft.

	The Champ • 80 Posts (19 ) • 8 month(s) 14 day(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter I've done an updated Post-Combine mock, but I would go ahead and put Fautanu as a 1st Round lock. He may even be able to stick at tackle after his Combine measurements. 0 0

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

) •
8 month(s) 14 day(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter I think the Vikes coaching staff is interested in having Cousins back, sure. But Adofo-Mensah is an analytics guy. I just have the sense that he's not willing to offer more than 1 guaranteed year this time. And that he wants to try the whole "QB on a rookie deal and build up the rest of the roster" thing. And I'm confident that ATL will offer more than 1 guaranteed year. I think they are tired of losing in a winnable division, the roster is actually in decent shape, and the scheme is perfect for Cousins because it's essentially going to be the same offense. They'll be the clear favorite in that division with him.

Oh, and I'm watching Seattle for Penix, not to move up for one of the top 4 QB's. You know, the Ryan Grubb connection. I don't think they would necessarily take him at 16, but perhaps a trade down and then still taking him in the late 1st could work.

	The Champ • 80 Posts (19 ) • 8 month(s) 15 day(s) ago
It's also really looking like Atlanta may end up with Cousins. If so, you'll have to re-think your team to trade up for Maye. 0 0

	The Champ • 80 Posts (19 ) • 8 month(s) 15 day(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter I personally agree that Bowers will be valued less than Nabers and, actually, Odunze too. However, my latest mock has Minnesota trading up to #5 (and giving up #42) for McCarthy and Bowers lasting until #11...to the Chargers, which would make a lot of sense. 0 0

	The Champ • 80 Posts (19 ) • 8 month(s) 16 day(s) ago
@WillWyn37 Duke Tobin is not taking a safety who may not be faster than I am. Just not how he operates, so yeah, Kinchens being that slow in the 40 all but rules him out for the Bengals. 0 0

	The Champ • 80 Posts (19 ) • 8 month(s) 17 day(s) ago
Newton at 60? My goodness, move him up! Also, Adonai Mitchell at 57 after his 4.34? Yeah, no. 1 0

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

) •
8 month(s) 19 day(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter Like Jayden Daniels, maybe this is a good sign for his draft stock. He may feel he simply doesn't have anything to gain because he's confident he will go in the top 10. And with Darren Waller not confirming whether or not he will retire, he could be more in play for the Giants at #6 than I initially thought.

In other news, Adonai Mitchell just ran a 4.35 40. Since 2015, he and DK Metcalf are the only 2 wideouts who are at least 6'2, 200 pounds, and ran that fast. I had him going at #32 to KC but that may be a little low. You'd have to imagine that Brett Veach would be licking his chops if he's there at 32.

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

) •
8 month(s) 22 day(s) ago - hide

First off, I greatly appreciate the considerable work that you put into this. It's really something, and you obviously know what you're doing. I have three thoughts where I guess I'd disagree with you a little bit, and I hope you don't take this as anything but constructive discussion. First, regarding Denver and their possible plan of attack, I think they are more likely than Minnesota and Las Vegas to come away with a rookie QB. Because Russell Wilson is going to take up a huge dead cap hit, they can't really spend much at the position. And while I agree that not only could Winston come relatively cheaply but that he could serve as a bridge starter in 2024, I still think that a rookie QB is very much in play for Payton. He's in the AFC. He has to realistically know that you have to have a potential upside franchise QB to be able to win 3 playoff games just to get out of the AFC. Winston just isn't doing that. I think Payton knows he has to take a shot on a rookie QB. And if they can't land one of the top 4 QB's somehow, I could see them trying to come away with Penix or Nix.

Second, I would be downright shocked if only 4 WR get picked in the 1st Round. I'm thinking the O/U will be 5.5.

And third, I think you're too low on Jackson Powers-Johnson and Penix. JPJ is probably considered the top center and maybe the top iOL after the Senior Bowl, where he dominated. A lot of teams have center/iOL in the 1st and it's difficult to imagine him sliding out of the 1st, at least to me. And as for Penix, I get that he'll turn 24 soon and that there are medical concerns, but this isn't like Latu where he once medically retired, where that was concerning his neck. I'm not saying that I think Penix goes in the 1st Round (though I believe it's possible that a team trades back up into the 1st for Penix or Nix), but it's hard for me to imagine some team not nabbing him in the 2nd. Too many teams need QB's and there will be some still holding their hand out after the musical chairs of free agency and the 1st Round have stopped.

Those would be my only quibbles. Truly, this was an enjoyable read and I, for one, appreciate all that you put into it.

Mr. Bitter • 323 Posts (462

) •
8 month(s) 21 day(s) ago

@The Champ

Yeah, Dallas Turner rocked the Combine. He's a little shorter than I thought but that doesn't really matter with that wingspan. Chop isn't as long as I assumed, but all-time freaky EDGE numbers overall. I'm thinking about swapping Chop and Turner in my mock, but I probably won't once I rewatch Chop's insane first step lol. Turner, Chop and Verse are all gonna come off the board in the top 16. No doubt.

Latu is longer than I expected. Still, those speed/explosion numbers...

I get that Latu wins with technique, but man...after watching tape from Chop, Turner and Verse, Latu looks lumbering in comparison.

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

) •
8 month(s) 22 day(s) ago

Second, I would be downright shocked if only 4 WR get picked in the 1st Round. I'm thinking the O/U will be 5.5.

Those would be my only quibbles. Truly, this was an enjoyable read and I, for one, appreciate all that you put into it.

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

) •
8 month(s) 22 day(s) ago - hide

Second, I would be downright shocked if only 4 WR get picked in the 1st Round. I'm thinking the O/U will be 5.5.

Those would be my only quibbles. Truly, this was an enjoyable read and I, for one, appreciate all that you put into it.

	The Champ • 80 Posts (19 ) • 8 month(s) 21 day(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter Sorry, it looks like it was a 4.47 for Turner, not a 4.42. 0 0

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

) •
8 month(s) 22 day(s) ago - hide

Second, I would be downright shocked if only 4 WR get picked in the 1st Round. I'm thinking the O/U will be 5.5.

Those would be my only quibbles. Truly, this was an enjoyable read and I, for one, appreciate all that you put into it.

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

) •
8 month(s) 21 day(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter I do have the Rams taking Latu, ha. Also, Dallas Turner went 4.42 today and Chop went 4.48. Turner also has a long-ass wingspan. Due to his athleticism and Alabama pedigree, I'm guessing he comes off first among the Edge guys. I know you think Chop will be a high pick and he probably helped himself today. Could be the EDGE2 imo, if teams fall in love with the physical package enough. I had him going 30th in my first mock but I think I will move him up when I do my next one.

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

) •
8 month(s) 22 day(s) ago - hide

Second, I would be downright shocked if only 4 WR get picked in the 1st Round. I'm thinking the O/U will be 5.5.

Those would be my only quibbles. Truly, this was an enjoyable read and I, for one, appreciate all that you put into it.

Mr. Bitter • 323 Posts (462

) •
8 month(s) 22 day(s) ago

@The Champ

I appreciate it, and don't mind the criticism at all. I follow your mocks and respect your opinion. I'm open to different perspectives and have been wrong a thousand times. Besides - If we all agreed on everything it would be boring as hell. Disagreement is what makes this fun.

It's obvious to most of us that DEN won't be making any serious noise in the AFC any time real soon, buy I truly question whether Payton thinks that way. The man has an ego on him. He annually overestimates his rosters and stubbornly sticks with his guys and his rigid philosophies instead of embracing young upgrades and fresh ideas. His post-Drew Brees Saints teams were basically just spinning their wheels, all while being financially irresponsible. It's looking like more of the same in DEN. Honestly, I just haven't been impressed with his coaching performance and decision-making post-Brees.

When doing a predictive mock, I try to think like the decision-makers for each team. That's why I have the Rams taking older prospects Latu and Nix, just as they did last year with Byron Young, Nacua, Turner, etc. - they know their SB window is closing fast and want older, immediate contributors. Personally, I wouldn't take Latu, but I'm pretty sure the Rams would. That's why I have Payton skipping on the rookie QBs for Winston - I honestly believe he thinks he can compete with Winston and his guys, because that's all Payton has ever showed me.

You might be right on the WR O/U, and believe me - not giving the Chiefs Troy Franklin killed me. But my thought process was that with the OT, DL and CB crops being so top-heavy, teams will be willing to put WR on hold until Day Two, where there will be a dozen high-quality WR options of varying styles to choose from. Take my JAX/Arnold pick. I instinctively wanted to slot Brian Thomas Jr. there and call it a day. Then I thought, "Wait - the Jags don't have a nickel corner, Darious Williams is almost 31, and Tyson Campbell is a FA after the season. Terrion Arnold is just sitting here at excellent value. I like Brian Thomas Jr., but he's not light years better than comparable Day Two guys like AD Mitchell, Xavier Legette, Keon Coleman, Brenden Rice, etc. JAX won't find a CB even close to Arnold on Day Two".

As for JPJ and Penix Jr., we just disagree on their value. I actually wasn't overly impressed with JPJ's Senior Bowl reps. They were highlighting instances where he was being pushed into the QBs lap then raving about his last second grapple/recovery. It's like, okay - that was feisty and all, but he was still getting pushed back. I just didn't see the dominator everyone was talking about.

I like Penix. Great arm. His age and medicals aren't even big concerns for me. He's just plain inaccurate under pressure. It's hard for me to get past that.

You're more than right about the QB supply-and-demand. I wouldn't be completely shocked if Penix went in the 1st round. For now I have him as a late 2nd/early 3rd prospect, but I'm open to moving him up depending on what we hear coming out of the Combine.

	The Champ • 80 Posts (19 ) • 8 month(s) 22 day(s) ago
I already regret this mock, ha. At #20, instead of the Steelers taking Wiggins, I think Latham makes more sense. Then Miami takes Fautanu instead of Latham, and the Eagles snap up Wiggins instead of Kool-Aid. And the Cardinals, at #27, get Kool-Aid, as they are in dire need of quality CB's (and a lot of other things, of course). I like that order much better. 0 0

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

) •
8 month(s) 22 day(s) ago

Second, I would be downright shocked if only 4 WR get picked in the 1st Round. I'm thinking the O/U will be 5.5.

Those would be my only quibbles. Truly, this was an enjoyable read and I, for one, appreciate all that you put into it.

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

) •
8 month(s) 22 day(s) ago

Second, I would be downright shocked if only 4 WR get picked in the 1st Round. I'm thinking the O/U will be 5.5.

Those would be my only quibbles. Truly, this was an enjoyable read and I, for one, appreciate all that you put into it.

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

) •
8 month(s) 22 day(s) ago

Second, I would be downright shocked if only 4 WR get picked in the 1st Round. I'm thinking the O/U will be 5.5.

Those would be my only quibbles. Truly, this was an enjoyable read and I, for one, appreciate all that you put into it.

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

) •
8 month(s) 22 day(s) ago

Second, I would be downright shocked if only 4 WR get picked in the 1st Round. I'm thinking the O/U will be 5.5.

Those would be my only quibbles. Truly, this was an enjoyable read and I, for one, appreciate all that you put into it.

	The Champ • 80 Posts (19 ) • 8 month(s) 23 day(s) ago
@noeman55 I agree that Tampa won't go CB. iOL makes the most sense, but they did just cut Shaq Barrett and I could see them taking a shot at an edge rusher if they like the players there. 0 0

	The Champ • 80 Posts (19 ) • 8 month(s) 23 day(s) ago
My first mock has the Raiders moving back up to #31 for Penix too, ha. I'm not sure I see Nix getting into the 1st as well, but I guess stranger things have happened. You clearly know what you're doing here with team needs and with fits. Nice work. 0 0

	The Champ • 80 Posts (19 ) • 8 month(s) 23 day(s) ago
My first mock has the Raiders moving back up to #31 for Penix too, ha. I'm not sure I see Nix getting into the 1st as well, but I guess stranger things have happened. You clearly know what you're doing here with team needs and with fits. Nice work. 0 0

	The Champ • 80 Posts (19 ) • 8 month(s) 23 day(s) ago
My first mock has the Raiders moving back up to #31 for Penix too, ha. I'm not sure I see Nix getting into the 1st as well, but I guess stranger things have happened. You clearly know what you're doing here with team needs and with fits. Nice work. 0 0

	The Champ • 80 Posts (19 ) • 8 month(s) 23 day(s) ago
Good mock. Only thing I will say is that I think it's tough to imagine Indy not franchise-tagging Pittman. No point of letting him go, really, if you're the Colts. 1 0

	The Champ • 80 Posts (19 ) • 8 month(s) 23 day(s) ago
Good mock. Only thing I will say is that I think it's tough to imagine Indy not franchise-tagging Pittman. No point of letting him go, really, if you're the Colts.

	The Champ • 80 Posts (19 ) • 8 month(s) 23 day(s) ago
Good mock. Only thing I will say is that I think it's tough to imagine Indy not franchise-tagging Pittman. No point of letting him go, really, if you're the Colts.

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

) •
1 years 6 month(s) ago

@TheOtherJohnnyFootball I really think they could move up for him, yes. The odds shifted significantly in the past 12 hours or so towards him going top 6 now, and he's the favorite to go at #5 now. Certainly Seattle would make sense for him if they are satisfied that he's not a red flag risk, but I've also seen it floated that Seattle could trade back. If so, maybe that's where Philly comes up to try to get him.

	The Champ • 80 Posts (19 ) • 1 years 6 month(s) ago
@Juniper Hills Yeah, I had to change a bunch of stuff. I'm literally looking at editing it every hour I'm awake, at this point, ha! 0 0

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

) •
1 years 6 month(s) ago

All of the following odds are courtesy of Bovada. Some notable player odds of being picked in the 1st Round:

Forbes -400

McDonald -325

Schmitz +170

Tippman -150

Kancey -210

Washington Even

Campbell +300

Torrence -175

Bresee -185

White +110

I find it very interesting that Tippman has better odds than Schmitz, because if anything, we've heard of a Schmitz connection to the Giants in the 1st, from Tony Pauline. We've heard little to nothing on Tippman in the 1st, so that's certainly eyebrow-raising. McDonald's odds are extremely surprising to me, as that price suggests he's going in the 1st Round, and his odds are considerably better than that of Keion White. Forbes' odds practically make him a lock, as Josh Norris has said. Kancey's odds are still decent, though I'm personally finding it hard to find the right fit for him if he gets past Detroit at #18.

Bovada also has Wilson at -400 to be a top-5 pick, while Carter is only +300. It has Richardson as -800 to go top-10, as well. Witherspoon remains the solid -210 favorite to go as the first CB, while Wilson is favored over Anderson (-150/+125) to be the first defensive player chosen. This suggests that Houston and even perhaps Arizona would be more likely to take Wilson over Anderson, a notion I happen to agree with.

Now for some ADP's. Carter's O/U is 6.5, with heavy juice (-270) to the Over. Kincaid is at 24.5, with slight juice (-135) to the Over. Bresee is at 29.5, with the juice nearly even on both sides. Addison is at 22.5, with juice to the Over (-145), which I find interesting because many mocks are placing him with the Chargers at #21, in large part because of the connection with the WR coach. I love the Under on Zay Flowers (22.5, with +135 for the Under), as I think one of the Pats/Seahawks/Chargers will take him.

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

) •
1 years 6 month(s) ago - hide

All of the following odds are courtesy of Bovada. Some notable player odds of being picked in the 1st Round:

Forbes -400

McDonald -325

Schmitz +170

Tippman -150

Kancey -210

Washington Even

Campbell +300

Torrence -175

Bresee -185

White +110

Mr. Bitter • 323 Posts (462

) •
1 years 6 month(s) ago

@The Champ

I gotta be honest: I have great respect for Tony Pauline, but his mocks and some of his intel have been suspect this year, IMO. Not sure what's going on there.

I agree that Forbes is pretty much a Day One lock. I bet we see 6 or 7 DBs go in the 1st.

McDonald is right on the cusp for me. He really helped himself Senior Bowl week, but he's still overaged and a total liability vs. the run. Arguably the best edge bend in the class though. That's valuable.

I bet Walt and Charlie get Richardson back into the top 10 of their mocks in the next 48 hours. Too much upside. Some team will bite early. Athletic QBs that can win off-script are what every team craves right now.

Seattle isn't taking Carter. I'd bet my pinkie finger on it. Seattle is the perfect situation for Richardson.

Agree with you on Flowers. It wouldn't shock me if HOU grabbed him at 1.12. He's comparable to Jaylen Waddle. Those speedy YAC monsters are at a premium right now. Mel Kiper recently moved Flowers into his top 10. People can say what they will about Kiper, but when he abruptly moves a guy way up right before the draft it's because he's heard something, and he's usually right.

Addison is small, not a burner, and wasn't really that impressive for USC last season. I'd be surprised if he goes in the 1st round, and don't like the fit with the Chargers. They need speed. I bet teams quietly like Josh Downs better than Addison.

I could totally see HOU or ARI take Wilson over Anderson if they stick and pick at 2/3. They're both bad organizations that make bad decisions. My money is still on the over for Wilson though.

Torrence is a sloppy body with no versatility beyond gap-scheme guard. He's the kind of O-line prospect the league is moving away from. I bet he goes late 2nd/3rd round.

Kincaid is overaged and there are rumblings that the bad back has teams more concerned than we've assumed. 2nd rounder for me.

I hadn't heard Zierlein's take on Levis at #2. Interesting.

	The Champ • 80 Posts (19 ) • 1 years 6 month(s) ago
Levis is now the -140 favorite to be drafted 2nd overall. Interestingly, well-connected Houston source Lance Zierlein doesn't buy it and think that the pick will be be between Anderson, Wilson, or Stroud. If Houston does pass on a QB at 2, I agree that they most likely wouldn't be planning on taking a QB with its second pick either. I wonder if they could be in play for Trey Lance. 0 0

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

) •
1 years 7 month(s) ago

@RDGS I am one of those who would be shocked if the Lions took Bijan at #6. That said, if they did pick him at 6, I feel very strongly that Detroit would pick a CB at #18 (or with their second pick after a trade up or down). Deonte Banks, in particular, would make a lot of sense for them at #18 if the top 3 CB's are gone.

I think we may start to see some sharp mocks with Darnell Washington to Dallas, rather than Mayer or Kincaid, if giving Dallas a TE. They met with Washington but not the other 2, and Dallas almost always has a private meeting with its eventual 1st rounder. Of course, there's been recent chatter that Washington will make it into the 1st Round. So I'm just connecting dots there.

	The Champ • 80 Posts (19 ) • 1 years 7 month(s) ago
@The Champ I misspoke when talking about the JSN theory, of course it is the Jets currently scheduled at #13, not the Packers. But the basic jist of it would be that the two clubs would swap picks if JSN is there, as New England would be a threat to take him at 14. 0 0

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

) •
1 years 7 month(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter Fair point on Bergeron/Miami. As it relates to Rodgers and the Jets and the Packers, I've seen some rumors making the rounds that the Packers are extremely high on Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and that the Rodgers trade is basically done. Essentially, if JSN makes it to the Packers' scheduled pick at #13, the rumor is that the two teams would swap picks at #13 and #15 so that the Packers could take JSN, and then one of the 2nd Round picks will be heading to the Packers as has been widely speculated. Or, I suppose, the Jets could technically take JSN and then the Packers would take whomever the Jets want at #15 and then the trade could get announced afterward, but you get the idea.

Some other tidbits I've seen floating out there:

--Carter is not getting out of the top 10. While I can't see Detroit, Seattle at 5 could happen, the Bears at 9 would be very likely to happen, and he wouldn't fall beyond Philly at 10.

--Seeing some rumblings of Darnell Wright to the Bears at #9. If Carter is gone and they want to go OT, he could get the call over Johnson or Skoronski or any of the others. They really like their LT, and Wright might be seen as a great RT by them who is more ready to play than Johnson/Jones.

--Darnell Washington has a shot to go in the late 1st and in doing some dot connecting, Dallas met with him privately, and Dallas almost always meets its eventual 1st Round picks on an official 30 visit. Notably, Dallas did NOT meet with Kincaid or Mayer. Just something to file away for sure.

--Daniel Jeremiah thinks it's better than 50/50 that Hooker ends up in the 1st Round.

--Josh Norris is convinced that Emmanuel Forbes and Anton Harrison will be picked in the 1st Round.

--There's been a media blitz of negative stuff on Stroud. We heard about the alleged "hard to coach" stuff last week, though there was some pushback by locals on that. But since then, it's come out that he ghosted the Manning Academy when he was supposed to appear, and also that he did terrible on the S2 test, which you can prepare for, of course. Is he the second coming of Bo Callahan? Ha, I kid, I kid.

	The Champ • 80 Posts (19 ) • 1 years 7 month(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter Yeah, the Rams could look at CB's or edge players for sure, if they don't like one of the tackle prospects. In this case I had Harrison go just one pick before, and Mauch is probably a guard in the NFL, so sure, I may have to re-think that one. 0 0

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

) •
1 years 7 month(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter To answer your last question, I just see things on Twitter from various outlets.

I'd still be surprised if Houston passes on Stroud, assuming Young goes #1. There's no guarantee of being able to move back up from #12, for one thing. And trading draft capital to move up for Richardson after winning in Week 18 would look really terrible as far as the optics. At least, as I see it. If anything, if they aren't in love with Stroud, maybe they trade down, get a haul, and dip their toes in the QB market next year.

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

) •
1 years 7 month(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter Yeah, Sanders is unlikely to be a coverage difference-maker like Edmunds was last year, but as you pointed out, Edmunds himself was a negative in that regard before 2022. Perhaps they'd see Sanders a starting the process over, as far as a youthful, potentially impact 'backer, and with Sanders, you are likely to get more pass rush juice as well. I dropped Torrence way down in this latest mock but he could be a consideration for them at 27 as well. Speaking of the Bills, I had them taking a safety with their 2nd rounder, and maybe they still could since they only signed Taylor Rapp to a 1-year deal, but I may reconsider that pick now.

As for Harrison sneaking into the 1st, if you have Dawand in the 1st (as I do), Harrison would be the 6th OL going in the 1st, and that's without Torrence, who is being commonly-mocked there. If the O/U for OL in the 1st is 5.5, I guess it's certainly possible that the 6th guy would be Harrison and not Torrence, if you like the Over. Or perhaps teams simply prefer Harrison to Dawand and then the latter slips into the 2nd.

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

) •
1 years 7 month(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter I did see that Baltimore signed Agholor. I see Addison as a guy who can handle a high-volume role. A guy who can keep you ahead of the chains on 1st down, and move the chains on 3rd down. An Amon-Ra type, I guess. The Ravens would probably prefer Johnston, but he is probably not going to last to 22, so maybe they'd trade up for him, who knows, though they often just let a good player fall to them.

As for the Chiefs, if Wright or Dawand Jones were there at 31, I would have gone with either of them over Hyatt. As Anton Harrison is adept in pass pro, perhaps he could be a consideration, but I am not sure that he sneaks into the 1st. I have KC then using its 2nd rounder on a pass rusher (Ojulari), but maybe someone like Jaelyn Duncan could be a consideration if they don't go with a tackle at 31. I also wouldn't rule out a trade up from 31 to get a tackle they like, perhaps Dawand Jones.

I like the Sanders fit in Buffalo, and personally think he should go higher, but I'm trying to project picks, that's all. Lance Zierlein's player comp for Sanders is...Tremaine Edmunds.

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

) •
1 years 8 month(s) ago

Interesting. You're much lower than consensus on Jalen Carter, Van Ness, Smith-Njigba, Kancey, Torrence, Branch, and much higher than consensus on Harrison, Adebawore, and Musgrave. I guess I get why Carter could drop so low, although I have a really hard time seeing Seattle pass on him with a SECOND pick in the round at #20. You're really aggressive on Adebawore; here I was thinking I was being proactive getting him into my 2nd Round lol.

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

) •
1 years 8 month(s) ago - hide

Mr. Bitter • 323 Posts (462

) •
1 years 7 month(s) ago

@The Champ

I've been digging deeper into a lot of these prospects while waiting for the free agency dust to settle.

Carter: Been getting BUST vibes from him long before the crash and Pro Day. Immature. Lousy decision maker. Conditioning/motivation red flags. Mediocre production at a position where scouts like to see great production. He's not a top 10 prospect.

Van Ness: The "J.J. Watt" idea of Van Ness doesn't jive with the tape. Good mover, motor, and strong as an ox, but not a bender. No real pass-rushing plan if he can't simply bull an O-lineman into the backfield. He won't be able to "Hercules" his way into the backfield in the NFL as easily as he did in the BIG 10. There's upside, but not sure about all the top 20 talk.

Smith-Njigba: He's a fine YAC-getting power slot, but he's still a slot. Slots are a dime-a-dozen. Quick as hell, but no second gear. The Rose Bowl performance vs. Utah that his advocates like to lean on came against a battered secondary and without Wilson and Olave in the lineup. His production splits with and without Wilson/Olave in the lineup were unimpressive.

Kancey: I like Kancey. Top 40 is nothing to sneeze at. I just worry about his lack of length and if the way he won in college will translate to the pros. He was just flat-out running around guards and into the backfield at Pitt. Doesn't have the array of moves, strength, or length of Donald. Not really a leverage guy for his height. On tape, often just looks like a huge MLB blitzing up the middle. Rotational piece could be his ceiling, which dings his value.

Torrence: Overrated. Strictly a guard and a sloppy mover in a league where O-line versatility is at a premium and almost everybody is running some variation of the Shanahan/McVay-type ZBS. He's plodding on film, and was plodding at the Senior Bowl and Combine. The NFL is kinda passing by guards like him.

Branch: Again, I like him a lot. Versatility teams want. But he's a safety with mediocre size and athleticism. More Xavier McKinney than Minkah Fitzpatrick. 2nd round.

Harrison: Ungodly length. I think people are down on him because he never emerged as a big sack guy, but I'm not sure if that's what he's designed for. He's more of a Adewale Ogunleye-type 4-3 LDE, which is fine. Would be a great fit in Eberflus' Lovie Smith-inspired scheme.

Adebawore: All-time Combine performance. The kind that demands a spot in the 1st round. Uber athlete with solid tape. Just draft him and find him a role.

Musgrave: Seriously rare mover for his size. Just so much more upside than the smaller and slower Kincaid (almost 24 years old with a back injury).

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

) •
1 years 8 month(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter I have him going 5th in one of my mocks too, and I'll be interested to see what his O/U in betting markets is, especially as draft day approaches. It doesn't seem likely that he's going to be charged with any felonies, from what I understand, if he's charged with anything at all. Still, I agree with what you said, that character issues overall are going to be an issue for many teams. For example, I don't think Detroit would even consider him at 6. But Seattle is one of those teams that we've seen take chances on high-upside guys with character issues. If they pass on him, who knows how far he could fall. Philly loves DL prospects, so would they roll the dice on him a year after getting Jordan Davis, figuring that they have another 1st rounder later?

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

) •
1 years 8 month(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter I don't know about that, we're in the prediction business of trying to get picks right, and looking at history is a smart way to go IMO, especially if the same regime is in place. Yes, Dallas finally took an OL after many years, but you would've lost money for a lot of years if you had picked Dallas to take one for many years, right? So when a team hasn't taken a CB in the 1st Round in 21 years, and when the team brought back its starting CB duo in free agency, and when this same team has a clear pattern of very often taking OL or DL in the 1st, it's just a case where I think the smart money is on DL or OL. Or possibly WR, since we have seen them use picks on WR's in the 1st recently with Reagor and Smith. If they want Smith-Njigba, they'll have to take him at 10, since Tennessee and Houston right behind them could be legitimately interested in him. And you could argue that both of those clubs could also go OL (especially Tennessee), so if they want to take an OL, they may not be able to trade down, either, especially if it happens to be Skoronski who is on the board, since he would seem to be a good fit at RG to replace Seumalo. I do question if Philly would go OL at 10 if Skoronski isn't there, since OT may not make sense and since it's clearly way too early for Torrence. But I guess you could also argue that it might be too early for one of the edge players or a DT...unless Carter is just sitting there for them, and we can't rule that out. In general, I do agree that they could find themselves in a spot where they'd ideally like to trade down.

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

) •
1 years 8 month(s) ago

Also, Green Bay doesn't have this much leverage to get all that draft capital from the Jets. Rodgers is a year-to-year player at this point, and while the Jets certainly want him, it's also true that Green Bay DOESN'T want him and can't carry his money into the season, and they want to play Jordan Love. I'll be surprised if they can even #13 by itself out of the Jets, but perhaps they can get a 2024 1st out of it, though I personally don't think they'll get a single 1st. We'll see.

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

) •
1 years 8 month(s) ago - hide

	Mr. Bitter • 323 Posts (462 ) • 1 years 8 month(s) ago
@The Champ Totally agree. I can't believe how many "expert" mocks have the Jets giving up 2 1st-rounders (and sometimes even more) for Rodgers. No way that's happening. At best they'll get something like #43 this year and a '24 2nd-rounder that could become a 1st-rounder if Rodgers fulfills certain requirements. 0 0

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

) •
1 years 8 month(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter I agree with that. I would also add that I'm going to have to go away from mocking a CB to them at 10, or even at 30. They've gone from the possibility of losing both Slay and Bradberry to keeping them both, plus they also signed Greedy Williams. And as Jordan Reid pointed out on Twitter, the Eagles haven't drafted a CB in the 1st Round since 2002 (Lito Sheppard). The odds appear very strongly that Philly will go OL or DL at 10, unless they absolutely fall in love with one of the WR's, I suppose.

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

) •
1 years 8 month(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter I agree with that. I would also add that I'm going to have to go away from mocking a CB to them at 10, or even at 30. They've gone from the possibility of losing both Slay and Bradberry to keeping them both, plus they also signed Greedy Williams. And as Jordan Reid pointed out on Twitter, the Eagles haven't drafted a CB in the 1st Round since 2022 (Lito Sheppard). The odds appear very strongly that Philly will go OL or DL at 10, unless they absolutely fall in love with one of the WR's, I suppose.

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

) •
1 years 8 month(s) ago - hide

Very thoughtful mock, and I enjoyed the writeups on each player. I'm one of those that is very high on Kincaid and think the NFL will be, too. (Well, at least many teams, in my estimation.) No, he's not much of a blocker, but with the way the rules so heavily favor offense now, a move TE like him could be a massive problem for defenses. If he's similar to Engram for the Jags, that may be what they want, as I don't think they'll see Engram as a long-term fit. (Now, if they sign him to an extension after he got the franchise tag, I will have to change my tune.)

I love seeing Dawand Jones in the 1st, as I am very, very high on him. Would make total sense for Cincy if he's still there.

	Mr. Bitter • 323 Posts (462 ) • 1 years 8 month(s) ago
@JRA Football A few JAX beat writers have recently reported that the Jags are prioritizing an extension for Engram. Could easily be speculation disguised as reporting, but just wanted to let you guys know if you weren't already aware. 1 0

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

) •
1 years 8 month(s) ago

I love seeing Dawand Jones in the 1st, as I am very, very high on him. Would make total sense for Cincy if he's still there.

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

) •
1 years 8 month(s) ago - hide

I love seeing Dawand Jones in the 1st, as I am very, very high on him. Would make total sense for Cincy if he's still there.

	Mr. Bitter • 323 Posts (462 ) • 1 years 8 month(s) ago
@The Champ I just replied to your comment about Dawand Jones in Walt's mock. I mentioned that the floor for Jones is CIN at 28. Then I see this. At this point I'm almost afraid to publish my mock for fear of it reading like a copy of yours lol. 0 0

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

) •
1 years 8 month(s) ago - hide

I love seeing Dawand Jones in the 1st, as I am very, very high on him. Would make total sense for Cincy if he's still there.

JRA Football • 4 Posts (1

) •
1 years 8 month(s) ago

@The Champ Forgive all the deleted comments, browser freaked out.

I was thinking of a long-term replacement for Engram, as opposed to a complementary piece. But obviously a strong argument could be made for a more traditional in-line TE like Mayer as well.

Also went back and forth on Jones or Darnell Wright, who I do expect to sneak into the first round, but wound up sticking with Jones. Glad I didn't get blasted for that one.

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

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1 years 8 month(s) ago

@Mr. Bitter Yep. I moved Carter down already but still in the top 10, and I think I'm going to have to drop him even further than that, at least for now. Also agree that Houston is not going to trade with Indy if a possible franchise QB is involved. And Houston has to take their shot this year, Mills isn't the answer and both Young and Stroud are ready to play and could be stars. I don't know how you pass on that.

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

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1 years 8 month(s) ago

I agree with Mr. Bitter, good work here. Who knows what Arizona will do at 3; it's my belief that they could try to bottom out and stockpile picks, what with Murray likely to miss significant time in '23 and with tons of holes to fill and a shaky cap situation, if I'm not mistaken. (Which is why Hopkins is likely getting dealt.) It's also worth noting that Steve Keim is no longer calling the shots, so perhaps they will go away from selecting the best athletic prospect. Could that favor Anderson over Carter? Perhaps. If I'm Arizona, I'm just going best available player (that's not a RB or QB) at 3, given how many holes they have. If a team is desperate enough to take a QB, I'd also strongly consider a trade down. I'd consider it a no-brainer to move down if the Bears somehow stand pat at take a non-QB at #1 overall.

Anyway, nice work, and I think your projected trades don't feel irrational, and feel pretty close in terms of fair draft compensation.

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

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1 years 9 month(s) ago

It's clear that you put a lot of effort into this and are pretty well-versed with team needs and such. This was a good read for sure. Your comment about Ballard and big-bodied QB's, plus how it seems like he often drafts for athletic upside, does make me wonder if he might prefer Stroud to Young if the Colts move up to #1 overall, as I have projected. I refuse to believe Levis will go ahead of Stroud or #1 overall, at least for now, but we've seen the NFL be stupid before.

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

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1 years 9 month(s) ago - hide

	flohrs • 2 Posts (1 ) • 1 years 8 month(s) ago
@The Champ I would never take Levis above Young or Stroud (or Richardson for that matter) but the industry seems to think he's QB2..... where there's smoke there's fire. 0 0

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

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1 years 9 month(s) ago - hide

@Mr. Bitter Thanks for the feedback! Yeah, I will be moving Hooker out of the 1st Round in my next update. I like him a lot but yes, his injury and his age will almost certainly push him to Day 2. It's quite possible that the Saints could get him with their 2nd Round pick. Some other thoughts I have:

--In my scenario of the Raiders passing on a QB, which means the Panthers get Levis, I was struggling to find a match for Richardson. I agree that his upside could mean he goes in the top 10, but he's just played so little football and is so raw that I think the way Lance has looked in his limited action might be a cautionary tale for some teams. But we could see Seattle and/or Atlanta take QB's, and if so, then there's a much better chance of 4 QB's going in the top 10.

--I do think Witherspoon could be the first CB taken and I only have him going as CB3 here because of the possible Porter-to-Pittsburgh thing. Instead of Detroit taking him at 18, they could even just get him at 6.

--If the Bucs are as high on Otton as you say, then yes, I should probably find another spot for Kincaid. I just think that many teams are going to fall in love with him.

--I think I'll need to get Bresee into the 1st Round, and possibly even into the first half of the round.

	The Champ • 80 Posts (19 ) • 1 years 9 month(s) ago
@Mr. Bitter Regarding Kancey, just don't know enough about him yet, haven't seen any specific buzz about him yet. For now I probably have him as a 2nd rounder, but there's eons to adjust if I see what I think is actionable buzz. Perhaps there is such buzz (like what I saw on Dawand Jones, for example), but I just haven't seen it yet. 0 0

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

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1 years 9 month(s) ago

--If the Bucs are as high on Otton as you say, then yes, I should probably find another spot for Kincaid. I just think that many teams are going to fall in love with him.

--I think I'll need to get Bresee into the 1st Round, and possibly even into the first half of the round.

The Champ • 80 Posts (19

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1 years 9 month(s) ago - hide

--If the Bucs are as high on Otton as you say, then yes, I should probably find another spot for Kincaid. I just think that many teams are going to fall in love with him.

--I think I'll need to get Bresee into the 1st Round, and possibly even into the first half of the round.

Mr. Bitter • 323 Posts (462

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1 years 9 month(s) ago

@The Champ

I wouldn't put too much stock into the Porter/Pittsburgh legacy thing. If he's the best player on PIT's board, then sure, but I don't think it will be a determining factor.

I freakin' love Witherspoon. He's my personal CB1, but I'm taking a tempered approach when slotting him in my mock for now. Phenomenal '22 season, but the facts remain that he was a one-year wonder and may not be the biggest or most athletic guy. Curious to see how that goes at the Combine.

Not a huge Bresee fan. Day 2 guy for me. But there's upside, and after a small handful of studs at the top of the 1st round there's like 30 guys who would be 2nd RD grades in less weak drafts, so who knows. There will be a ton of team draft board variation.

I noticed you haven't slotted Calijah Kancey yet. Not a big fan?